Coronavirus (way, way, off topic)
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Sadly, according to NPR news, if you have to go to the ER in Tucson, Arizona, where I grew up, you now have to wait over 200 hours before a hospital bed frees up for you. That means you're laying on a gurney in a hallway for over 8 days! Plainly an overflow condition, literally.
Worthy of note, according to some European health agencies, is that mixing and matching the vector and mRNA machines may be optimal: https://fortune.com/2021/12/07/mix-and-match-vaccines-heterologous-boosters-pfizer-moderna-jnj-astrazeneca-sputnik-ema-ecdc/ I wasn't aware of this until I specifically went looking for the info. Too much "not invented here" mentality in the US when over the summer we could have been trading Pfeizer and Moderna vaccines for sputnik vaccines and had a true win-win outcome. Compared to both Pfeizer and Moderna, Sputnik protection loses effectiveness more slowly (4x more slowly than Pfeizer and 8x more slowly than Moderena).
@NeverDie The latest update from Prof John Campbell you may find of particular interest since it incorporates the latest data from the US.
Whereas the Omicron variant is indeed causing a massive increase in cases presenting, the hospitalisation, ITU and death rates are markedly different to Delta which is being rapidly supplanted.
On vaccines and immunity some interesting observations also https://youtu.be/TrVGymR-jFU
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@NeverDie The latest update from Prof John Campbell you may find of particular interest since it incorporates the latest data from the US.
Whereas the Omicron variant is indeed causing a massive increase in cases presenting, the hospitalisation, ITU and death rates are markedly different to Delta which is being rapidly supplanted.
On vaccines and immunity some interesting observations also https://youtu.be/TrVGymR-jFU
@zboblamont Thanks for posting that youtube. That led me to an even more recent youtube by the same youtuber, where he made the point that because omicron is 1. so incredibly transmissible (in the youtube that you posted he quoted some un-named indian researchers who had declared it to be the most transmissible respiratory virus of all time, even more so than measles) and 2. offers back protection against the Delta variant, then 3. it is effectively helping to snuff-out the proliferation of Delta. That is very good news. Indeed, his analysis suggests contracting omicron is actually a good thing because it's so survivable and because it ultimately trains your immune system to be more resistant to other variants.
For reasons as yet unclear to me he seems to downplay the likelihood of possibly another future surge of a new, highly pathogenic variant (e.g. perhaps less transmissible than omicron, but far worse outcomes). I hope he's right, but unfortunately he didn't lay out an argument for why it is unlikely. Perhaps because after omicron so many people will have a natural resistance to any covid-19 variant, and so there will be a smaller pool of potential hosts for something really nasty to evolve within? Or is there some other Virology 101 explanation for why it would be unlikely?
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@zboblamont Thanks for posting that youtube. That led me to an even more recent youtube by the same youtuber, where he made the point that because omicron is 1. so incredibly transmissible (in the youtube that you posted he quoted some un-named indian researchers who had declared it to be the most transmissible respiratory virus of all time, even more so than measles) and 2. offers back protection against the Delta variant, then 3. it is effectively helping to snuff-out the proliferation of Delta. That is very good news. Indeed, his analysis suggests contracting omicron is actually a good thing because it's so survivable and because it ultimately trains your immune system to be more resistant to other variants.
For reasons as yet unclear to me he seems to downplay the likelihood of possibly another future surge of a new, highly pathogenic variant (e.g. perhaps less transmissible than omicron, but far worse outcomes). I hope he's right, but unfortunately he didn't lay out an argument for why it is unlikely. Perhaps because after omicron so many people will have a natural resistance to any covid-19 variant, and so there will be a smaller pool of potential hosts for something really nasty to evolve within? Or is there some other Virology 101 explanation for why it would be unlikely?
@NeverDie I may be wrong in my understanding of the argument -
Omicron is crowding out the more dangerous version Delta and will soon be the only variant in circulation.
The cross immunity being documented suggests any subsequent variant would be rendered ineffective since the immunity imparted is for the whole virus not specific proteins.John Campbell has had a regular update for some time, is very analytical in his approach and is excellent in explaining in layman's terms.
He's still fighting the UK authorities over not making aspiration mandatory for intramuscular vaccinations, and there is mounting evidence and professional opinion he is correct in doing so. -
@NeverDie I may be wrong in my understanding of the argument -
Omicron is crowding out the more dangerous version Delta and will soon be the only variant in circulation.
The cross immunity being documented suggests any subsequent variant would be rendered ineffective since the immunity imparted is for the whole virus not specific proteins.John Campbell has had a regular update for some time, is very analytical in his approach and is excellent in explaining in layman's terms.
He's still fighting the UK authorities over not making aspiration mandatory for intramuscular vaccinations, and there is mounting evidence and professional opinion he is correct in doing so.@zboblamont said in Coronavirus (way, way, off topic):
The cross immunity being documented suggests any subsequent variant would be rendered ineffective since the immunity imparted is for the whole virus not specific proteins.
This is obviously not a good argument, it sounds "logic" and "common sense" but has been denied by the facts. Many people got the original strain of sars-cov2 and got immunity for "the whole virus" but later got sick from Delta and/or Omicron.
The hope I think is that with the combination of widespread vaccination AND widespread Omicron circulation following an already strong circulation of the Delta variant the immunity most people will have will be based on many different strains of sars-cov2 and at least 2 of them (original through vaccination and Delta or Omicron) which have a lot of differences. So unless nasal vaccinations get widespread we will still get sick from covid when new variants emerge, but only will lighter symptoms like vaccinated people with Omicron.
But even if most doctors and epidemiologists seem very optimistic there is still a risk of a new, more virulent variant escaping this immunity, and the widespread circulation of Omicron makes it possible, as the widespread circulation of the virus has made possible the appearance of previous strains where the virus circulation was strong (Alpha in UK, Beta then Omicron in South Africa, Lambda in Peru Delta in India, ...).
I try to take any claim by any doctor with a grain of salt, especially when they refer to previous epidemic/pandemic situations as reference. Because many predicted sars-cov2 would evolve to be more contagious but less virulent, only to be proven wrong repeatedly (Alpha more contagious and as virulent, both Lambda and Delta being more contagious and much more virulent).
And for this specific doctor he made false claims about Ivermectin use and efficiency in Japan, in addition to being no virologist nor epidemiologist, so like others he is not infallible and is mostly sharing his hopes (that I share !) and guesses but it should not be taken as truth cast in stone, sars-cov2 has been very unpredictable until now... -
@zboblamont said in Coronavirus (way, way, off topic):
The cross immunity being documented suggests any subsequent variant would be rendered ineffective since the immunity imparted is for the whole virus not specific proteins.
This is obviously not a good argument, it sounds "logic" and "common sense" but has been denied by the facts. Many people got the original strain of sars-cov2 and got immunity for "the whole virus" but later got sick from Delta and/or Omicron.
The hope I think is that with the combination of widespread vaccination AND widespread Omicron circulation following an already strong circulation of the Delta variant the immunity most people will have will be based on many different strains of sars-cov2 and at least 2 of them (original through vaccination and Delta or Omicron) which have a lot of differences. So unless nasal vaccinations get widespread we will still get sick from covid when new variants emerge, but only will lighter symptoms like vaccinated people with Omicron.
But even if most doctors and epidemiologists seem very optimistic there is still a risk of a new, more virulent variant escaping this immunity, and the widespread circulation of Omicron makes it possible, as the widespread circulation of the virus has made possible the appearance of previous strains where the virus circulation was strong (Alpha in UK, Beta then Omicron in South Africa, Lambda in Peru Delta in India, ...).
I try to take any claim by any doctor with a grain of salt, especially when they refer to previous epidemic/pandemic situations as reference. Because many predicted sars-cov2 would evolve to be more contagious but less virulent, only to be proven wrong repeatedly (Alpha more contagious and as virulent, both Lambda and Delta being more contagious and much more virulent).
And for this specific doctor he made false claims about Ivermectin use and efficiency in Japan, in addition to being no virologist nor epidemiologist, so like others he is not infallible and is mostly sharing his hopes (that I share !) and guesses but it should not be taken as truth cast in stone, sars-cov2 has been very unpredictable until now...@Nca78 Agreed.
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@zboblamont said in Coronavirus (way, way, off topic):
The cross immunity being documented suggests any subsequent variant would be rendered ineffective since the immunity imparted is for the whole virus not specific proteins.
This is obviously not a good argument, it sounds "logic" and "common sense" but has been denied by the facts. Many people got the original strain of sars-cov2 and got immunity for "the whole virus" but later got sick from Delta and/or Omicron.
The hope I think is that with the combination of widespread vaccination AND widespread Omicron circulation following an already strong circulation of the Delta variant the immunity most people will have will be based on many different strains of sars-cov2 and at least 2 of them (original through vaccination and Delta or Omicron) which have a lot of differences. So unless nasal vaccinations get widespread we will still get sick from covid when new variants emerge, but only will lighter symptoms like vaccinated people with Omicron.
But even if most doctors and epidemiologists seem very optimistic there is still a risk of a new, more virulent variant escaping this immunity, and the widespread circulation of Omicron makes it possible, as the widespread circulation of the virus has made possible the appearance of previous strains where the virus circulation was strong (Alpha in UK, Beta then Omicron in South Africa, Lambda in Peru Delta in India, ...).
I try to take any claim by any doctor with a grain of salt, especially when they refer to previous epidemic/pandemic situations as reference. Because many predicted sars-cov2 would evolve to be more contagious but less virulent, only to be proven wrong repeatedly (Alpha more contagious and as virulent, both Lambda and Delta being more contagious and much more virulent).
And for this specific doctor he made false claims about Ivermectin use and efficiency in Japan, in addition to being no virologist nor epidemiologist, so like others he is not infallible and is mostly sharing his hopes (that I share !) and guesses but it should not be taken as truth cast in stone, sars-cov2 has been very unpredictable until now... -
@Nca78 You seem pretty well informed, and I learn a lot from your posts. Thank you for that! Are there any youtubers, or other sources, that you find particularly worthwhile to follow?
@NeverDie thank you for taking the time to read all my long messages :D
I mostly read from news in French from (relatively) reliable newspapers but I try to cross check with their own sources, and trying to avoid the infamous confirmation bias which is a very hard task :D So sorry, no good single reliable source to share, I think that's the key, try to get multiple sources and avoid the bogus ones: those who can't recognize their mistakes, who try to bend reality to fit their narratives, who pretend they have a miracle cure based on cherry picked or self-made low quality studies etc etcAnd of course always remember that even from "experts" in virology/epidemiology predictions are only best guesses and we can never be sure of anything, it takes time to see which hypothesis becomes reality. While media can't wait and are ready to invite anyone who is willing to give answers, the most probable outcome is not always the one that will happen. As seen in France right now, it was expected the Omicron outbreak would fade away like it's doing in UK after peaking last week, while in the end a sub-variant that seems even more transmissible has taken over and made contamination numbers increase again and set new records (0.7% of population tested positive on Tuesday only !).
So trust those that dare to say they are not sure and talk about the other possibilities, and whatever the subject is, always try to check the solidity of the data/information on which what you hear is based on, especially if you like what you hear/read ;)
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@NeverDie it's kind nostalgic to see posts like this
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@NeverDie thank you for taking the time to read all my long messages :D
I mostly read from news in French from (relatively) reliable newspapers but I try to cross check with their own sources, and trying to avoid the infamous confirmation bias which is a very hard task :D So sorry, no good single reliable source to share, I think that's the key, try to get multiple sources and avoid the bogus ones: those who can't recognize their mistakes, who try to bend reality to fit their narratives, who pretend they have a miracle cure based on cherry picked or self-made low quality studies etc etcAnd of course always remember that even from "experts" in virology/epidemiology predictions are only best guesses and we can never be sure of anything, it takes time to see which hypothesis becomes reality. While media can't wait and are ready to invite anyone who is willing to give answers, the most probable outcome is not always the one that will happen. As seen in France right now, it was expected the Omicron outbreak would fade away like it's doing in UK after peaking last week, while in the end a sub-variant that seems even more transmissible has taken over and made contamination numbers increase again and set new records (0.7% of population tested positive on Tuesday only !).
So trust those that dare to say they are not sure and talk about the other possibilities, and whatever the subject is, always try to check the solidity of the data/information on which what you hear is based on, especially if you like what you hear/read ;)
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Worthy of note:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3vY2LyQn1ATL;DR: It turns out that masking had essentially no efficacy. :face_palm: It blows my mind. How can it be that the mainstream got so much so wrong for so long about covid? And, more importantly, what should we have done instead?
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I don't know what guidance is being given in other countries, but here in the US the CDC is still endorsing the use of cloth masks, even now 3 years into this debacle:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.htmlAt the grocery store and other retail, I still see some people wearing cloth masks....
